Terminal App · Polymarket BTC Trading Bot
Polymarket BTC Up/Down Terminal Trading Bot — Automated Short-Interval Market Execution with Live Chainlink Pricing, CLOB Integration, and Adaptive Strategy Selection
A terminal-based trading application for Polymarket's BTC Up/Down markets. It connects live Chainlink BTC pricing, Gamma market metadata, and the Polymarket CLOB to place, track, settle, and close short-horizon UP/DOWN positions across 5-minute, 15-minute, and 4-hour windows — with simulation mode, real-time PnL, technical indicators, and configurable automatic trading strategies.
Overview
Polymarket BTC Trading Bot is a production-oriented trading console built for Polymarket's recurring BTC price-direction markets. Each market resolves on whether Bitcoin closes above or below a Price to Beat (PTB) at the end of a fixed time window. The bot continuously discovers the active and upcoming windows, streams live BTC from Chainlink RTDS, fetches official market data from Gamma, and routes orders through the Polymarket CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) API.
The application is designed for operators who want full situational awareness without leaving the terminal. A Textual TUI presents live BTC price, PTB, delta, UP/DOWN buy prices, wallet balance, session PnL, outcome history, EMA/RSI context, and bias alerts — while exposing one-click controls for direction, stake size, arming, auto-betting, immediate entry, next-window entry, and bulk position closure.
Trading can run in SIMULATION mode (paper fills, no capital at risk) or LIVE mode (real USDC market orders). Every bet is tracked from placement through settlement or early exit. Beyond manual control, an automatic trading strategy layer evaluates market structure, indicators, recent outcome bias, and risk parameters to select and execute an appropriate strategy profile each cycle — enabling hands-off operation when AUTO BET is armed.
Market & Data
Multi-source feeds and official market metadata for accurate window discovery and pricing.
Multi-interval markets
Trade BTC Up/Down on 5m, 15m, and 4h windows with runtime interval switching.
Gamma market discovery
Automatic slug resolution, token ID mapping (yes = UP, no = DOWN), and outcome price display.
Live Chainlink BTC feed
WebSocket RTDS stream for real-time price and PTB capture near window open.
PTB resolution hierarchy
Gamma official PTB → Chainlink REST → RTDS WebSocket fallback.
CLOB price integration
Batch and per-token buy/sell pricing; order book fallback for best ask/bid.
Binance technical context
EMA (9, 21, 50, 200, 250) and RSI (14, 21) aligned to the active market timeframe.
Order Execution
From paper trading to signed live market orders on the Polymarket CLOB.
Market orders via CLOB V2
FAK (fill available) or FOK (all-or-nothing) order types.
Simulation mode
Full order flow without sending live transactions; separate PnL ledger.
Live mode
Signed market orders with fill resolution, balance diagnostics, and error persistence.
BET NOW
Immediate entry on the current open window (repeatable; bypasses arm slot lock).
BET NEXT
Pre-position on the upcoming window before it opens.
AUTO BET
Continuous betting every window until HOLD or target profit is hit.
ARM NEXT
One-shot auto bet on the next window (~15 seconds before open by default).
CLOSE ALL
Sell all open positions by share quantity; LIVE mode requires double confirmation.
Risk & Session Management
HOLD / disarm
Hard stop for all automated betting activity.
Configurable stake presets
$1, $2, $5, $10, $20, $50 USDC.
Target profit auto-HOLD
Optional streak profit target ($5–$50 or custom) that disarms AUTO BET when reached.
Separate sim/live ledgers
Independent session PnL, streak state, and persistent JSON history in data/.
Window outcome history
Rolling record of recent UP/DOWN results for bias analysis.
Monitoring & Alerts
Real-time dashboard
BTC price, PTB, delta, countdown, UP/DOWN prices, wallet line, PnL periods, history strip.
Bias alerts
Configurable thresholds on recent 100- and 30-window UP/DOWN skew with visual banners and optional sound.
Settlement transparency
Provisional Chainlink settlement with later Gamma verification and correction logging.
Rich order log
Color-coded trade, fill, settlement, and error messages.
Operator Experience
Textual TUI
Keyboard shortcuts (U/D, 1–6, B, N, H, Enter, A, X, P, Q) and mouse-friendly buttons.
Pulse highlighting
Optional visual pulse on active control states.
Sound alerts
Optional audio feedback on button presses and bias warnings.
Modular architecture
Separated config, auth, feeds, market data, execution, state, and UI layers for maintainability.
Automatic Trading Strategy Selection
The adaptive strategy engine runs each polling cycle when AUTO BET or ARM NEXT is active. It scores market structure and operator parameters, then selects the best-matching strategy profile for the upcoming window.
Inputs evaluated each cycle
Time to window open
Timing aggressiveness, entry delay
BTC vs PTB delta
Directional conviction, mean-reversion vs momentum
UP/DOWN book prices
Implied probability, edge vs fair value
EMA stack alignment
Trend filter (bullish / bearish / neutral)
RSI extremes
Overbought/oversold fade or continuation
Recent outcome bias
Contrarian or momentum bias adjustment
Stake & target profit
Risk budget and exit discipline
Market interval & mode
Volatility regime; simulation vs live parameter set
Strategy profiles (auto-selected)
Momentum Follow
Short EMAs above long EMAs, delta aligned with trend, RSI 45–65
Bet with trend (UP in uptrend, DOWN in downtrend) at full stake.
Mean Reversion Fade
RSI extreme (>70 or <30) and stretched delta vs PTB
Fade overcrowded side; reduced size on 5m, full size on 4h.
Opening Snap
≤15s to window open, tight spread, neutral RSI
Directional bet on default side or book-implied lean.
Bias Contrarian
Recent 30-window skew exceeds alert threshold
Bet against dominant historical outcome when book price offers edge.
Bias Momentum
Skew + live delta + EMA agree
Bet with dominant regime when structure confirms.
Defensive Pass
Wide spread, missing PTB, or conflicting signals
Skip window; preserve capital and streak.
Target-Lock Conservative
Streak PnL within 80% of target profit
Halve stake size; favor higher-probability book side.
Interval-Scaled
4h vs 5m structure
4h: trend-weighted; 5m: delta + microstructure weighted.
Selection logic
- Classify regime — trending, ranging, or extreme (RSI + EMA cross-stack).
- Score edge — compare implied UP/DOWN prices to model fair value from delta and PTB distance.
- Apply bias modifier — adjust scores using 30/100-window UP% vs user thresholds.
- Filter by risk — respect HOLD, simulation caps, minimum order size, and target-profit proximity.
- Pick profile — highest composite score wins; ties break toward lower-variance profile.
- Execute — at BET_TRIGGER_SECONDS before open, place market order with profile direction and adjusted stake.
Operator overrides
- ✓Direction (UP/DOWN) acts as a hard preference unless full auto-direction is enabled via AUTO BET.
- ✓Amount presets set the base stake; profiles apply multipliers (0.5×–1.0×) never below the $1 CLOB minimum.
- ✓Target profit forces Defensive Pass or auto-HOLD when the streak target is reached.
- ✓HOLD and CLOSE ALL immediately supersede any active strategy for the session.
After each settled window, the engine updates win rate by profile, interval, and bias bucket — drifting selection weights toward profiles with positive expectancy under the current market structure.
See Polymarket BTC Trading Bot in action
Live terminal dashboard and session demo — BTC context, controls, and order flow in one view.
Terminal dashboard
Live session demo
Built for disciplined terminal trading
Polymarket BTC Trading Bot is a Python console application for operators who want full situational awareness, simulation before live deployment, and adaptive strategy selection on Polymarket BTC Up/Down markets.